Table of Contents
In November 2024, 80% of Norwegians trusted NATO’s security guarantee.
By February 2025, that number had fallen to 47%.
A 33 percentage point collapse in three months. The fastest erosion of security trust in modern Norwegian history.
The Numbers Don’t Lie#
According to Opinion’s Samfunnsmonitor, Norwegian attitudes have shifted dramatically:
Fear of war in Norway within 5 years (TV2, March 2025):
- February 2024: 6% thought it likely
- February 2025: 16% think it likely
A near-tripling in one year. As Opinion’s senior advisor Nora Clausen put it: “A few years ago, it would have been unthinkable that every sixth Norwegian expects war in Norway within a few years. Now we’re there.”
Fear of World War III in their lifetime (Norges Forsvarsforening):
- March 2024: 29% saw great danger
- February 2025: 42% see great danger
Nora Clausen commented: “Now there are more Norwegians who believe they will experience World War III than those who don’t. The majority of those under 50 believe they will witness a new world war.”
Trust in Norway’s defense capability (Aftenposten, March 2025):
- February 2025: Only 23% trust it
- 60% do not trust Norway’s ability to defend itself
“The fact that 60 percent don’t believe in Norway’s defense capability must be the highest level in my lifetime,” says Clausen.
What Changed?#
One name: Donald Trump.
His re-election in November 2024 and subsequent statements about NATO allies triggered an unprecedented collapse in Norwegian trust. Opinion’s analysis is direct:
There is little doubt that Donald Trump has made the world a more insecure place. Trust in the USA appears to be eroding at a pace unprecedented in modern history.
— Nora Clausen, Opinion
The data supports this:
| Month | Trust NATO guarantee |
|---|---|
| March 2024 | 79% |
| November 2024 | 80% |
| February 2025 | 47% |
In just three months after Trump’s election, Norway went from overwhelming trust in NATO to barely half the population believing the alliance would protect them.
Norwegians Are Responding#
This isn’t just abstract fear - Norwegians are changing behavior:
Support for military buildup (Norges Forsvarsforening):
- November 2024: 69% wanted increased defense spending
- February 2025: 80% want increased defense spending
Personal preparedness (DSB Egenberedskapsundersøkelse 2024):
- 2017: 21% stored drinking water
- 2024: 47% store drinking water
In May 2024, DSB increased the recommended personal preparedness from 3 days to 7 days. “Beredskapsvenn” (preparedness friend) was named Norway’s word of the year 2024 by Språkrådet - a person you have an agreement with for help in a crisis situation.
The Question No One Is Asking#
Norwegians are stockpiling water, extending their preparedness supplies, and supporting military investment. The government is increasing defense budgets.
But here’s what almost no one is discussing:
If we can no longer rely on American security guarantees, can we rely on American digital infrastructure?
Consider what Norway runs on:
- Microsoft 365 for government and business
- Azure for cloud infrastructure
- American platforms for communication
- US-controlled systems for critical services
The same country whose security commitment we now question controls the digital infrastructure that runs our society.
The Disconnect: Rising Dependency, Falling Trust#
Here’s the data that should alarm every Norwegian decision-maker:
xychart-beta
x-axis [2014, 2017, 2021, 2023, "Mar 2024", "Nov 2024", "Feb 2025"]
y-axis "Percentage" 0 --> 100
bar [29, 48, 64, 71, 73, 75, 78]
line [80, 80, 80, 80, 79, 80, 47]
line [3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 10, 16]
line [21, 21, 30, 40, 45, 47, 47]
Legend:
| Color | Metric | Trend | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▓ Bars (peach) | Cloud adoption | 29% → 78% ↑ | SSB/Eurostat |
| ━ Line 1 (yellow) | NATO trust | 80% → 47% ↓ | Opinion |
| ━ Line 2 (orange) | Expect war in Norway | 3% → 16% ↑ | Opinion |
| ━ Line 3 (red) | Households storing water | 21% → 47% ↑ | DSB |
Norwegian enterprise cloud adoption (SSB, Eurostat):
| Year | Enterprises using cloud services |
|---|---|
| 2014 | 29% |
| 2017 | 48% |
| 2021 | 64% |
| 2023 | 71% |
Trust in American security guarantee (Opinion Samfunnsmonitor):
| Date | Trust in NATO |
|---|---|
| March 2024 | 79% |
| November 2024 | 80% |
| February 2025 | 47% |
The picture is stark: Cloud dependency climbs steadily upward while trust in the US collapses.
And who controls the cloud? Microsoft holds 63% of the Norwegian cloud market. Amazon and Google split another 18%. That’s 81% of Norway’s cloud infrastructure controlled by American companies subject to the CLOUD Act - which requires them to hand over data to US authorities regardless of where it’s stored.
96% of Norwegian state agencies now use cloud services. Public sector cloud spending has doubled since 2020 to an estimated NOK 20 billion annually.
We’re not just dependent. We’re becoming more dependent, even as trust evaporates.
The Parallel Is Exact#
The logic Norwegians apply to military security should apply equally to digital security:
Military dependency: We assumed NATO (meaning primarily the US) would always protect us. That assumption is now in doubt.
Digital dependency: We assume American tech companies will always serve us. Why is that assumption safer?
In both cases:
- We outsourced critical capability to the United States
- We assumed American interests would align with ours
- We’re now discovering that assumption may be wrong
Defense Minister Tore O. Sandvik acknowledged in 2025: “We face an unsettled and demanding security situation.”
The same is true digitally - we just haven’t admitted it yet.
How Fast Support Can Be Withdrawn#
In March 2025, Norwegians witnessed in real-time how quickly American support can be weaponized.
After a heated Oval Office argument on February 28, the Trump administration:
March 3, 2025: Paused all military aid to Ukraine - stopping shipments of weapons and equipment not yet inside the country.
March 5, 2025: Paused intelligence sharing - cutting off the targeting information Ukraine needed to defend itself.
One source familiar with the arrangement told NBC News: “Combined with the stopping of military assistance and foreign aid, it pretty much guarantees a Russian victory without there needing to be a peace deal.”
Both were restored only after Ukraine agreed to accept Trump’s ceasefire proposal terms.
The lesson: A nation’s ability to defend itself was switched off - and back on - based on one leader’s mood after a single meeting. This is the reality of dependency.
Now ask yourself: If American military support can be paused with a phone call, what about American digital services?
What Sanctions Teach Us#
While Norway debates military preparedness, other countries are already experiencing digital lockout.
When the US sanctioned the International Criminal Court in February 2025, it demonstrated that even international institutions backed by 124 countries can be cut off from digital services.
Iranian developers have written extensively about losing access to GitHub, cloud services, and the tools the rest of the world takes for granted.
The mechanism exists. The precedent is set. The only question is whether Norway will ever be on the receiving end.
80% Want Defense Investment - What About Digital Defense?#
The Opinion survey shows 80% of Norwegians support increased defense spending. This makes sense - when you realize a threat is real, you invest in protection.
But digital sovereignty is also defense. It’s defending:
- Our data from foreign access
- Our services from arbitrary suspension
- Our economy from external control
- Our democracy from digital coercion
Norwegian Minister of Digitalization Karianne Tung has called for exit strategies from foreign cloud providers. But this message hasn’t penetrated public consciousness the way military preparedness has.
The Word of the Year Should Be “Digital Sovereignty”#
“Beredskapsvenn” won word of the year because Norwegians understood they need to prepare for crisis together.
The same logic applies digitally:
- Personal preparedness: Use open standards, diversify your tools
- Organizational preparedness: Have exit strategies, European alternatives
- National preparedness: Invest in sovereign infrastructure
If 80% of Norwegians support military investment because they no longer trust American guarantees, shouldn’t they also support digital sovereignty for the same reason?
The Trust Equation#
Here’s the uncomfortable truth:
| Domain | Trust in US (Feb 2025) |
|---|---|
| Military protection | 47% |
| Digital services | ? |
We’ve measured the first number. We haven’t honestly confronted the second.
But the same administration that’s causing Norwegians to doubt NATO is the same administration that sanctioned the ICC, threatened humanitarian organizations, and demonstrated that American services can be weaponized against anyone who crosses American interests.
What Would Preparedness Look Like?#
If Norwegians are stockpiling water and making “beredskapsvenn” agreements, what’s the digital equivalent?
Personal level:
- Backup email on European provider
- Important documents in open formats
- Family photos stored locally
- Familiarity with alternative tools
Organizational level:
- Data export capabilities tested
- European alternatives identified
- Transition plans documented
- Staff trained on backups
National level:
- Investment in Norwegian/European infrastructure
- Requirements for data sovereignty in public contracts
- Support for open source alternatives
- Digital independence as security policy
The Same Fear, Different Domain#
PRIO director Nina Græger summarized the mood: “A growing unease about the future is making itself felt among Norwegians. These findings show a population that increasingly notices an unstable world and is skeptical of institutions’ ability to handle this.”
That skepticism should extend to digital institutions too.
Defense Chief Eirik Kristoffersen advised: “My overall message is that we must remain calm, trust our authorities, and above all stand together.”
Standing together also means building digital infrastructure we control together - not depending on foreign corporations whose loyalties lie elsewhere.
61 Conflicts, 91 Autocracies#
The global context reinforces the urgency:
- 2024 saw 61 armed conflicts - a record since 1946 (UCDP/PRIO)
- 72% of the world’s population now lives in autocracies (V-Dem Institute 2025)
- For the first time in 20+ years, autocracies outnumber democracies (91 vs 88)
This is not a world where we can assume benevolent American protection - military or digital.
Your Move#
47% of Norwegians no longer trust the NATO guarantee.
Do you trust the Microsoft guarantee? The Google guarantee? The Amazon guarantee?
If not, what are you doing about it?
The same pragmatic, non-panicked preparedness that’s driving Norwegians to store water and support defense spending should drive us toward digital sovereignty.
Find your digital “beredskapsvenn.” Whether that’s LibreOffice, ProtonMail, Nextcloud, or a local backup drive - start building your independence today.
Because the trust that held for 75 years can collapse in three months.
Don’t wait until you’re locked out to discover you needed a key.
Sources#
Norwegian Surveys (Opinion Samfunnsmonitor February 2025):
- Opinion: Økt krigsfrykt preger Norge - Primary source
- TV2: Én av seks nordmenn tror det er krig her innen fem år - Survey coverage
- Aftenposten: Hver sjette nordmann tror det er krig i Norge innen fem år - Survey coverage
- Norges Forsvarsforening: Krigsfrykten har økt blant nordmenn - Survey analysis
- Document.no: Økende krigsfrykt blant nordmenn - PRIO survey coverage
Preparedness:
- DSB: Brosjyren om egenberedskap ble lest og fulgt opp - Preparedness statistics
- DSB Egenberedskap - 7-day preparedness recommendation
- Språkrådet: Beredskapsvenn er årets ord - Word of the year 2024
Cloud Adoption Statistics:
- SSB: Half of Norwegian enterprises buying cloud services - Enterprise cloud adoption 2014-2017
- Eurostat: Cloud computing statistics - Enterprise cloud adoption 2021-2023
- Stortinget: Markedet for skytjenester - Market share and public sector spending
Global Context:
- Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) - Global conflict statistics
- V-Dem Institute Democracy Report 2025 - Democracy tracking
Official Statements:
- Dagsavisen: Forsvarssjefen tror ikke det er fare for krig i Norge - Defense Chief statement
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